Terror, Security, and Money by Stewart Mark G. Mueller John & Mark G. Stewart

Author:Stewart, Mark G., Mueller, John & Mark G. Stewart
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Published: 2011-03-11T05:00:00+00:00

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Hardened Cockpit Doors

While the effectiveness of hardening cockpit doors has been questioned,51 there is little doubt that they could deter and delay a hijacker’s attempt to enter the cockpit.

We assume in this case that (1) in the absence of all post-9/11 security measures, the probability of a successful terrorist hijacking attack is 10 percent per year; (2) the successful attack would inflict $100 billion in damage (as an upper bound); and (3) hardened cockpit doors reduce the risk of a successful hijacking by 16.7 percent. Multiplying these three items together as indicated in the equation generates a benefit of $1.67 billion. This number is then compared with the cost of hardening cockpit doors of $40 million per year. Because this cost is far less than the FAMS budget and because the risk reduction is greater, the measure is generally cost-effective: the net benefits as arrayed in table 7.2 are positive for most combinations of attack probability and losses. The net benefit for our central, if somewhat extreme, case of a 10 percent annual attack probability that inflicts $100 billion in losses comes to $1,630 million as boxed in the table.52 For a Pentagon-like attack where damage totals $10 billion, the cost-benefit gain is much lower, but still positive, at $127 million, underlined in the table.

Table 7.2 NET BENEFIT IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS FOR HARDENING COCKPIT DOORS, ASSUMING IT COSTS $40 MILLION PER YEAR AND REDUCES THE RISK OF A 9/11 REPLICATION BY 16.7 PERCENT

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